Is this Sell-off a Correction or the Beginning of a Bear Market?

Sell-off a Correction or Bear Market: Need Systematic Objective Analysis

Are you falling of a cliff as well or do you use systematic and objective analysis?


Are you buying the dip or selling all your funds? Are you paralyzed by fear when markets drop more than 4% in a single day or do you stay calm and relaxed? How do you decide if you see this sell-off as a temporary correction or the beginning of a longer bear market?

Anybody, who tells you that he is absolutely certain that this is a correction or the beginning of a bear market, is lying or does not know what he talks about.

Nobody knows the future. But objective analysis can give us an indication of what will most likely follow.


Stock Market Timing System for Beginners

Stock market timing system or service for beginners 

Stock market timing helps to make balanced buy-sell decisions to create great investing returns.


Stock market timing helps me now already for over 8 years to capitalize on the long-term trends that you can see in stock market indices. This market timing system I developed in 2003 has enabled me to benefit from the bull market between 2004 and 2007, to avoid the financial crisis of 2008 and to ride again the trend up between 2009 and today.

How Do You Avoid Losing 40% Of Your Savings In The Next Market Meltdown?

How much money would I have had now if I would have known in the year 2000 what I know now? Sometimes I think back to that period 10 years ago when I did not have a system yet to warn me for when stock markets are starting to fall and continue to fall.


How To Avoid a Stock Market Meltdown with Your Investments?


Did you invest already in the stock market in the years 1999 and 2000? If you started to invest in the market after that period, you have probably experienced only one market meltdown: the one in 2008. When you started to invest in the stock market before the year 2000, you have seen two meltdowns.

Stock Market Trend Analysis

Stock Trend Investing is specialized in Stock Market Trend Analysis. Every month we analyse and review the trends in a number of major stock market indices. Yes, we review it every month, not every day. The reason for that is that the typical user of the Stock Trend Investing system does not have time to trade every day. Our users only want to spend maximum one hour per month on their investments.


Therefore, Stock Trend Investing is performing a specific monthly stock market trend analysis. If the user of the analysis only wants to trade once per month, the analysis has to be targeted to that. Likewise, a trend investor who wants to trade every day needs a daily stock market trend analysis.


Market Timing Mutual Funds

Market timing for mutual funds is crucial for being successful with investing in mutual funds. Stock Trend Investing is focused on giving market timing signals for investors in mutual funds and index funds.

Different market timing systems have different timing horizons. Some look at the timing within a few hours, others look at the market timing within a few days or weeks. Stock Trend Investing considers the longer term trends that are expected to last a few months or even a few years.

Members of the Stock Trend Investing community review their positions only once per month. This is especially suitable for people who cannot or do not want to spend every day or week a certain amount of time on their investments.

Should Stock Trend Investors show patience or bold action during March

Do you know now how the Asian, European and US stock markets did during February 2010? Did they go up or down and how shall someone investing in stock market trends take action on these developments? Here is an easy overview.

In summary, the main US markets went up during February, the main European markets went a little down, except for the UK and the Asian markets went up except for the Japanese Nikkei.

stock trend investors show patience in March 2010


Nikkei 225 Index Trend Investing: did you get out too early?

Has the Nikkei 225, the Japanese stock market index that has been on a losing streak for a few months, now turned around? During this month, the Nikkei index has been gaining and during the last week it has hit its highest point in 4 months.
In the beginning of December, the Stock Trend Investing system warned that if the Nikkei 225 would decline another month during December, it would issue a sell warning for your holdings in funds that are expected to follow the Nikkei. We noted that those investors who firmly believed that the Nikkei would decline again during December, could as well sell already.

Nikkei 225 stock trend investing

Which stock market indices increased during November despite Dubai

Do you know if the whole Dubai issue has made the stock markets close lower or higher at the end of November compared to a month ago? With all the fuss around Dubai, one could easily forget that most stock market indices actually closed higher at the end of November than at the end of October. What does this mean for the Stock Trend Investing investor?

In the beginning of 2010, Stock Trend Investing will launch its membership service. Members will receive on a monthly basis recommendations how to capitalize on the trends in the stock market indices around the world. Till that time, we provide you already with some free insights. Sign up for our free newsletter in case you want to be notified when our new service will be availble exactly.

Now, let’s look at what the Stock Trend Investing system tells us about what happened to the trends in the stock market indices during November.

US Markets

For the US markets, the Dow gives a buy signal but the other indices (Nasdaq, NYSE, S&P 500) tell us to hold. For the Nasdaq and NYSE we still get a very minuscule correction warning. If you want to increase your holdings in the US markets, look first at index funds that follow the Dow Jones.

Gold and India

The Mumbai based BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) tells us at this moment that there is still a fair chance on a short-term correction. This would be caused by a too high growth in the index during the last 6 months.

Gold is on a roll the last months and actually the whole last decade. We see no indication that this momentum would change. However, the prices have gone above the normal expected trend lines.


17 year Gold trend chart from Stock Trend Investing


European Markets

The three main European markets (FTSE, DAX, CAC 40) tell us to hold our positions. If we see a positive result during December, we will get a buying signal here again.

East Asian Markets

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index keeps giving positive buying signals and so is the Shanghai Composite Index. Since the Hong Kong index has increased so considerable during the last half year, we still see some short-term correction risk.

The Japanese Nikkei declined again during November as one of the few indices in the world. Our system gives still the benefit of the doubt and tells us to wait and see for another month. However, trend investors who are confident that the Nikkei index will also drop during December, can just as well sell their Nikkei related holdings now.

Overall, for investors who would like to increase their stock market investment, we recommend to look at China indices and the Dow Jones Industrials Index at this moment.

When you are interested to be notified when the new Stock Trend Investing membership will be launched, we recommend you to sign up for our newletter.

Do you sleep like a baby when your stock market investment devalues

Do you run for safety and move your stock market investment into a low interest savings account or do you stay put after last weeks decline?

Every month, I use the Stock Trend Investing system to decide what I am going to do. This system provides me with buy-indications, correction-warnings or sell-warnings for a number of stock market indices around the world. Accordingly I make changes in my stock market investment.

All indices that we follow had a lower ending in October than their September ending except for the Dow Jones Industrial Averages Index, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index. The Dow’s October ending was almost identical to a month ago. Thus the only indices that we follow and that showed real positive gains during October are the China related indices.


What buy indications and warnings do we have now for your stock market investment?


Overall the trend is still up with some warnings for a possible temporary correction.

The US indices do not give us a buy indication but give still a warning for a correction since they went up so much during the last period.

Chart as guide for stock market investment decisions


In general the European stock market indices do not give a specific buy indication, sell warning or a correction warning for our stock market investment after their declines in October.


In Asia, Hong Kong and Shanghai still show sufficient positive momentum and trigger a buy indication while both at the same time provide a warning for a possible correction since they increased so much during the past few months.


The Japanese Nikkei does not give any specific indication, signalling to us to hold our holdings and not to ad to them. The Sensex in Mumbai continues to give a warning for a correction. Even after last months decline, it still has gone up so far during the past period that you should be aware of the possible correction.

Gold has gone up for 4 months in a row and is on a roll. No warnings yet that it has gone up too much or so. Our system gives for Gold a buy indication.


What I will do


Given the current situation, I do not increase or decrease my stock market investment. I will see if I sell the put option I have bought last month on one of the European indices with some profit. If I do that, I will buy a put option on one of the US indices (S&P or NASDAQ) to cover for or benefit from a possible correction. However, since the stock market indices in the world follow each other in general, I may decide to keep my put option on one of the European indices since I expect them to follow any correction in the US markets. In this way I save some trading costs.

I do not buy any Gold yet since I have not figured out what for me the best way is to buy Gold.


Please leave a comment to this blog post and share with us what you will change in your stock market investment after the October closing.


Quick Start Guide - How to Capitalize on Stock Market Trends

This strategy to capitalize on stock market trends does not take a lot of your time. It is simple and straightforward. Its objective is to help you to grow your savings and protect your wealth while saving your time: make great long-term money in the stock market with just one hour per month and avoid the next prolonged market crashes like those in 1987, 2001 and 2008. And it can be free.

In summary, as a Stock Trend Investor, you will use the following approach to grow your savings, profit from downturns and protect your capital:

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