The S&P 500 gained 7.6% during the last 3 days of November. Great news you may think. However, you need to see it in perspective. Even after these last 3 days, the S&P 500 still lost 3% during November.

During periods like now, when markets fluctuate multiple percentages per day, it is easy to lose the overview of the real direction that the market is moving.

Have a look at this S&P 500 chart that shows the month-end closing values for the last 14 years. See how the moving average for the last 6 months points down. See how the S&P 500 closing price for the last 2 months is almost on top of this moving average.

Just looking at this chart, where do you think the S&P 500 will move the next few months?

That is a subjective question of course.

To remain objective, we analyze every month a new of mathematical long-term trend signals (like hedge fund managers do).

Now all these S&P 500 long-term trend signals are pointing down.

If you want to start investing now or put your savings back into the stock market, I suggest you be very careful. I keep my savings out of the stock market and would consider anything else more gambling than investing.

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